Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 48.3% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 84.0%
Defensive zone
Dewar 70.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 60.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Dewar
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Dewar
MacKinnon
Last 7: Dewar 4-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Dewar
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
3
1
Dewar
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (47)
49.7% (1,029)
+3.5%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
64.3% (154)
+35.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (30)
34.4% (32)
-1.1%
On power play, Dewar has a +35.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Dewar is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (34).
Dewar shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (876).
Home / Away
Dewar
MacKinnon
Home
50.0% (34)
53.1% (606)
Away
43.2% (44)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Dewar
MacKinnon
P1
50.0%
49.4%
P2
32.0%
52.8%
P3
60.9%
50.8%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.0%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
44.5%
46.2%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 05:48 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:31 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 13:40 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 02:46 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 16:12 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 03:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |