Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nazar wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 47.3% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 73.9%
Defensive zone
Nazar 57.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
Nazar
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nazar
MacKinnon
Last 5: Nazar 4-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
1
Nazar
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (574)
49.7% (1,038)
-2.5%
Power Play
51.0% (143)
63.7% (157)
-12.7%
Penalty Kill
30.2% (43)
34.4% (32)
-4.2%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Nazar is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (224).
Nazar shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Nazar
MacKinnon
Home
45.0% (329)
53.1% (618)
Away
48.5% (431)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Nazar
MacKinnon
P1
47.8%
49.3%
P2
43.4%
53.0%
P3
48.4%
50.7%
OT
75.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 18:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:15 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:22 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:34 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |