Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Foligno 49.9% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 76.8%
Defensive zone
Foligno 68.3%
Neutral zone
Foligno 52.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
MacKinnon
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
MacKinnon
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Foligno
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
49.5% (291)
+0.2%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
55.8% (43)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
47.2% (53)
-12.8%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Foligno is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Foligno
Home
53.1% (618)
48.9% (178)
Away
49.1% (609)
50.7% (209)
By Period
MacKinnon
Foligno
P1
49.3%
43.0%
P2
53.0%
55.9%
P3
50.7%
50.0%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.7%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 07:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |