Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 76.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 61.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 64.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 70.7%
70.7%
29.3%
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 5: MacKinnon 4-1 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,029)
46.0% (250)
+3.7%
Power Play
64.3% (154)
70.6% (17)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
31.8% (22)
+2.6%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (876).
MacKinnon shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
53.1% (606)
50.3% (175)
Away
49.1% (609)
40.4% (114)
By Period
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
49.4%
48.5%
P2
52.8%
45.9%
P3
50.8%
46.5%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.6%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
51.1%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 07:47 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 12:37 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 18:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 14:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |