Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 18 meetings). MacKinnon wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.7% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 25-16 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 64.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 57.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
16
(41 meetings)
25
16
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
13
5
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
3
7
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
9
4
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
44.8% (8,775)
+1.3%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
50.6% (844)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
37.8% (880)
+5.0%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
MacKinnon shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (3,653).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
49.7% (6,471)
46.5% (5,361)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
42.8% (5,150)
By Period
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
47.4%
45.1%
P2
46.6%
43.9%
P3
46.1%
45.2%
OT
48.4%
43.2%
Final 5 min
49.1%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 07:47 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 12:37 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 18:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 14:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 04:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 13:14 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:21 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 16:41 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 07:25 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 14, 2019 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 14, 2019 | 2 | 02:47 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 3 | 17:29 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 12:46 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 2 | 17:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 2 | 15:14 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 2 | 10:26 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 2 | 01:50 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |