Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.7% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 69.6%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 56.3%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 52.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 65.1%
65.1%
34.9%
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 5: MacKinnon 3-2 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
50.3% (479)
-1.1%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
50.0% (28)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
30.0% (50)
+19.1%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (173).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
50.9% (740)
48.9% (270)
Away
49.0% (774)
48.1% (287)
By Period
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
50.9%
48.7%
P2
51.8%
50.0%
P3
47.1%
47.3%
OT
58.8%
36.4%
Final 5 min
51.2%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
49.9%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 04:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 13:14 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:21 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 16:41 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |