Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Bennett on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Bennett 46.6% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bennett 55.7%
Defensive zone
Bennett 50.4%
Neutral zone
Bennett 59.1%
Result
Sam Bennett favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
MacKinnon
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
MacKinnon
Bennett
Last 6: MacKinnon 3-3 Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Bennett
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bennett
1
3
MacKinnon
Bennett
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Bennett
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
46.5% (909)
+2.7%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
43.1% (51)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
38.5% (13)
+10.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Bennett is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (316).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Bennett
Home
50.9% (740)
45.4% (449)
Away
49.0% (774)
46.9% (524)
By Period
MacKinnon
Bennett
P1
50.9%
49.6%
P2
51.8%
43.7%
P3
47.1%
45.1%
OT
58.8%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.2%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
49.9%
Bennett
50.0%▲
43.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2025 | 1 | 16:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:44 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 05:08 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:50 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:45 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |