Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Bennett 48.2% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 57.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 54.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 57.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
MacKinnon
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
MacKinnon
Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Bennett
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
46.4% (811)
+3.3%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
56.9% (153)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
47.8% (46)
-13.4%
On penalty kill, Bennett has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Bennett is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Bennett
Home
53.1% (618)
49.9% (553)
Away
49.1% (609)
45.7% (457)
By Period
MacKinnon
Bennett
P1
49.3%
47.4%
P2
53.0%
46.8%
P3
50.7%
48.9%
OT
66.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Bennett
46.0%▼
51.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |