Nathan MacKinnon vs Sean Couturier
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Couturier 53.6% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 53.8%
Defensive zone
Couturier 93.1%
Neutral zone
Couturier 74.0%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 71.1%
28.9%
71.1%
MacKinnon
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
MacKinnon
Couturier
Last 9: MacKinnon 6-3 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
0
MacKinnon
Couturier
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
2
MacKinnon
Couturier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Couturier
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
53.9% (792)
-4.2%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
62.9% (70)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
51.3% (234)
-16.9%
On penalty kill, Couturier has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Couturier is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (395).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Couturier
Home
53.1% (618)
51.4% (541)
Away
49.1% (609)
56.4% (555)
By Period
MacKinnon
Couturier
P1
49.3%
56.0%
P2
53.0%
52.6%
P3
50.7%
54.3%
OT
66.7%
44.1%
Final 5 min
56.7%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 07:49 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 04:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 12:12 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 10:00 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 07:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 07:17 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 08:27 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:01 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |