Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Monahan 54.5% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 52.1%
Defensive zone
Monahan 51.1%
Neutral zone
Monahan 53.5%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
MacKinnon
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
MacKinnon
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
MacKinnon
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
57.1% (871)
-11.6%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
53.1% (262)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
44.6% (139)
-4.6%
On even strength, Monahan has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (519).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Monahan
Home
47.8% (670)
55.3% (644)
Away
44.6% (644)
54.5% (628)
By Period
MacKinnon
Monahan
P1
45.3%
53.9%
P2
48.5%
55.3%
P3
45.0%
54.4%
OT
33.3%
76.5%
Final 5 min
47.4%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.2%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 06:55 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 03:54 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 11:06 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |