Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Monahan 52.5% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 53.6%
Defensive zone
Monahan 73.8%
Neutral zone
Monahan 61.8%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
MacKinnon
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
MacKinnon
Monahan
Last 10: MacKinnon 8-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
3
MacKinnon
Monahan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
2
MacKinnon
Monahan
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
0
MacKinnon
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
53.0% (874)
-3.3%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
54.7% (161)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
47.5% (101)
-13.1%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Monahan is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (426).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Monahan
Home
53.1% (618)
53.8% (558)
Away
49.1% (609)
51.7% (578)
By Period
MacKinnon
Monahan
P1
49.3%
49.5%
P2
53.0%
54.8%
P3
50.7%
52.8%
OT
66.7%
61.9%
Final 5 min
56.7%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 17:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 10:28 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 10:23 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 10:17 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 07:38 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 17:28 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 07:02 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 03:07 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 03:04 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:05 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:57 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 08:15 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |