Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Novak 42.6% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 72.8%
Defensive zone
Novak 69.3%
Neutral zone
Novak 78.0%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 71.4%
28.6%
71.4%
MacKinnon
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
MacKinnon
Novak
Last 5: MacKinnon 1-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
3
MacKinnon
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,029)
40.5% (405)
+9.2%
Power Play
64.3% (154)
45.5% (33)
+18.8%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (876).
MacKinnon shoots right. Novak is 39.6% vs right-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Novak
Home
53.1% (606)
42.0% (212)
Away
49.1% (609)
39.8% (226)
By Period
MacKinnon
Novak
P1
49.4%
41.7%
P2
52.8%
39.5%
P3
50.8%
42.1%
OT
66.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
56.6%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
51.1%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:35 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 07:33 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 06:54 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 03:57 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |