Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 45.9% vs Novak 46.5% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 58.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 59.5%
Neutral zone
Novak 50.8%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
MacKinnon
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
MacKinnon
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
MacKinnon
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (755)
43.2% (118)
+2.6%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
47.8% (23)
+0.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
MacKinnon shoots right. Novak is 39.6% vs right-shot opponents (53).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Novak
Home
49.5% (396)
50.7% (71)
Away
41.7% (448)
37.1% (70)
By Period
MacKinnon
Novak
P1
50.2%
44.7%
P2
43.8%
50.0%
P3
41.4%
38.9%
Final 5 min
41.0%
35.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
45.4%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |