Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.4% vs 44.5%). MacKinnon wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Novak 45.6% (-0.1%)
Offensive zone
Novak 51.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 63.3%
Neutral zone
Novak 53.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
MacKinnon
Novak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
43.8% (384)
+0.9%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
58.8% (17)
-22.0%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
100.0% (1)
-35.0%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +35.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
MacKinnon shoots right. Novak is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (149).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Novak
Home
49.4% (553)
46.5% (202)
Away
40.0% (615)
42.5% (200)
By Period
MacKinnon
Novak
P1
45.3%
49.2%
P2
42.7%
44.2%
P3
45.1%
40.0%
OT
46.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
44.4%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
44.5%