Nathan MacKinnon vs Tommy Novak
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKinnon wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Novak 43.0% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 69.3%
Defensive zone
Novak 53.1%
Neutral zone
Novak 59.7%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
MacKinnon
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
MacKinnon
Novak
Last 10: MacKinnon 4-6 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
4
MacKinnon
Novak
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
2
MacKinnon
Novak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
41.8% (1,568)
+4.3%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
51.5% (134)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
50.0% (2)
-7.2%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
MacKinnon shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Novak
Home
49.7% (6,471)
45.1% (831)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
40.2% (873)
By Period
MacKinnon
Novak
P1
47.4%
43.7%
P2
46.6%
42.8%
P3
46.1%
41.1%
OT
48.4%
57.1%
Final 5 min
49.1%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:35 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 07:33 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 06:54 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 03:57 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 02:14 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 04:05 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 02:10 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 07:42 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |