Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Necas on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Necas wins 35.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Necas 43.0% vs Dowd 49.9% (-12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Necas 86.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 83.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 71.8%
Result
Martin Necas favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Necas
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Necas
Dowd
Last 5: Necas 3-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Necas
3
0
Necas
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Necas
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Necas
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
37.3% (118)
52.2% (835)
-14.9%
Power Play
41.2% (17)
60.0% (10)
-18.8%
On power play, Dowd has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Necas is 35.3% vs right-shot opponents (34).
Necas shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Necas
Dowd
Home
35.2% (71)
51.5% (619)
Away
40.6% (64)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Necas
Dowd
P1
29.4%
51.7%
P2
45.2%
51.6%
P3
41.5%
47.0%
OT
0.0%
22.2%
Final 5 min
43.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Necas
36.0%▼
38.0%
37.8%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 08:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Martin Necas |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 14:15 | Offensive | Martin Necas |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 11:46 | Offensive | Martin Necas |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 01:17 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |