Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Donato 47.1% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 74.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 83.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 57.5%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Dowd
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Dowd
Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Donato
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Donato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Dowd
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
46.8% (297)
+4.2%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
41.0% (39)
-41.0%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
100.0% (1)
-58.5%
On penalty kill, Donato has a +58.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Dowd shoots right. Donato is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Dowd
Donato
Home
48.2% (471)
45.8% (142)
Away
48.8% (426)
46.7% (195)
By Period
Dowd
Donato
P1
48.3%
49.5%
P2
46.8%
45.7%
P3
51.0%
43.4%
OT
30.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
51.0%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 16:29 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 02:27 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |