Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Donato 44.7% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Donato 83.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 94.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 86.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Dowd
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Dowd
Donato
Last 10: Dowd 8-2 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
1
2
Dowd
Donato
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
7
0
Dowd
Donato
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Dowd
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (6,036)
44.0% (1,218)
+8.3%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
46.0% (248)
+10.1%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,638)
41.7% (12)
+2.4%
On power play, Dowd has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Dowd shoots right. Donato is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (569).
Home / Away
Dowd
Donato
Home
51.9% (3,917)
47.2% (743)
Away
49.5% (3,922)
41.4% (735)
By Period
Dowd
Donato
P1
51.5%
43.8%
P2
50.4%
44.9%
P3
50.3%
43.7%
OT
45.9%
70.0%
Final 5 min
50.4%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 16:29 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 02:27 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:17 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 04:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 1 | 15:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 09:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 09:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 02:22 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |