Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.3% vs Aho 53.8% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 18-17 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 94.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 78.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 59.0%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Dowd
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
18
(35 meetings)
17
18
Dowd
Aho
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
9
Dowd
Aho
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
9
2
Dowd
Aho
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
7
7
Dowd
Aho
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (778)
51.2% (785)
-2.0%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
63.8% (213)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (234)
57.9% (57)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Dowd shoots right. Aho is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (406).
Home / Away
Dowd
Aho
Home
46.3% (492)
54.9% (548)
Away
49.8% (532)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Dowd
Aho
P1
49.1%
52.8%
P2
48.2%
58.9%
P3
46.9%
50.6%
OT
71.4%
60.0%
Final 5 min
45.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
48.1%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 17:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 16:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 11:28 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 07:26 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 01:59 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 16:33 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 13:53 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 10:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 08:24 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 08:19 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 19:04 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 14:49 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 12:00 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 08:48 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 04:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 17:15 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 06:53 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 3 | 12:41 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 3 | 12:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |