Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Aho 50.5% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 83.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 88.3%
Neutral zone
Aho 50.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Dowd
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Dowd
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Dowd
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
50.5% (878)
+0.5%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
53.5% (144)
-53.5%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
44.3% (61)
-2.8%
On power play, Aho has a +53.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Dowd shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Home / Away
Dowd
Aho
Home
48.2% (471)
53.8% (571)
Away
48.8% (426)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Dowd
Aho
P1
48.3%
49.0%
P2
46.8%
51.7%
P3
51.0%
50.3%
OT
30.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
51.0%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 18:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:38 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:33 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |