Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 51.3%). Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 30 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Aho 51.3% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 38-36 in 74 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 89.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 81.9%
Neutral zone
Dowd 52.0%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Dowd
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
38
-
36
(74 meetings)
38
36
Dowd
Aho
Last 10: Dowd 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
4
26
Dowd
Aho
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
19
2
Dowd
Aho
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
15
8
Dowd
Aho
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (6,036)
50.2% (6,646)
+2.1%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
58.9% (1,310)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,638)
46.5% (465)
-2.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Dowd shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,104).
Home / Away
Dowd
Aho
Home
51.9% (3,917)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
49.5% (3,922)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Dowd
Aho
P1
51.5%
51.1%
P2
50.4%
52.1%
P3
50.3%
50.8%
OT
45.9%
48.9%
Final 5 min
50.4%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 18:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:38 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:33 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 09:29 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 10:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:23 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 08:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 19:28 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 03:22 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 03:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 17:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |