Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 53.9%). Look for Couturier on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Paul wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.6% vs Couturier 53.6% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 71.3%
Defensive zone
Couturier 59.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 54.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 67.0%
67.0%
33.0%
Paul
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Paul
Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
2
Paul
Couturier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Paul
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (354)
53.9% (792)
-0.2%
Power Play
59.0% (61)
62.9% (70)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (34)
51.3% (234)
+1.6%
On power play, Couturier has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Paul shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (696).
Home / Away
Paul
Couturier
Home
55.1% (216)
51.4% (541)
Away
53.6% (233)
56.4% (555)
By Period
Paul
Couturier
P1
54.9%
56.0%
P2
54.5%
52.6%
P3
54.3%
54.3%
OT
44.4%
44.1%
Final 5 min
57.7%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 19:59 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 01:23 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 12:53 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 16:06 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |