Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.3% vs 52.6%). Look for Couturier on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Couturier 52.6% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Couturier leads 17-10 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 64.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 65.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 67.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
Paul
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
17
(27 meetings)
10
17
Paul
Couturier
Last 10: Paul 4-6 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
4
10
Paul
Couturier
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
2
Paul
Couturier
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
3
5
Paul
Couturier
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (3,823)
52.5% (11,097)
+0.1%
Power Play
56.2% (484)
59.7% (1,280)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (576)
48.5% (1,823)
-1.6%
On power play, Couturier has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Paul shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (8,936).
Home / Away
Paul
Couturier
Home
52.8% (2,445)
53.4% (7,171)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
51.8% (7,036)
By Period
Paul
Couturier
P1
53.8%
52.6%
P2
51.0%
52.6%
P3
52.2%
52.9%
OT
50.0%
49.6%
Final 5 min
51.3%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 19:59 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 01:23 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 12:53 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 16:06 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 04:54 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 15:29 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 10:58 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 17:50 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 11:35 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 15:42 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 05:35 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:19 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:58 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 04:47 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 04:44 | Defensive | Nick Paul |