Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +18.6% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.9% vs Zegras 40.4% (+18.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 55.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 87.3%
Neutral zone
Paul 71.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 87.3%
87.3%
12.7%
Paul
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Paul
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (277)
33.6% (143)
+19.5%
Power Play
58.7% (46)
39.0% (41)
+19.7%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (29)
100.0% (1)
-48.3%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +48.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Paul is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (249).
Paul shoots left. Zegras is 34.7% vs left-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Paul
Zegras
Home
52.9% (155)
31.6% (98)
Away
54.3% (197)
39.1% (87)
By Period
Paul
Zegras
P1
55.6%
38.9%
P2
56.7%
38.0%
P3
50.8%
27.1%
OT
20.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
59.8%
29.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
53.7%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
35.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |