Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +21.4% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.6% vs Zegras 37.0% (+21.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 52.8%
Defensive zone
Paul 87.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 75.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 87.2%
87.2%
12.8%
Paul
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Paul
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (354)
33.0% (264)
+20.7%
Power Play
59.0% (61)
32.1% (56)
+26.9%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (34)
50.0% (2)
+2.9%
On power play, Paul has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Paul shoots left. Zegras is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Paul
Zegras
Home
55.1% (216)
35.3% (173)
Away
53.6% (233)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Paul
Zegras
P1
54.9%
33.0%
P2
54.5%
35.7%
P3
54.3%
29.7%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.7%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |