Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Zegras 39.5% (+13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 56.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 94.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 85.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 83.1%
83.1%
16.9%
Paul
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Paul
Zegras
Last 8: Paul 5-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Paul
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
4
2
Paul
Zegras
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (3,823)
39.0% (1,703)
+13.6%
Power Play
56.2% (484)
38.5% (148)
+17.7%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (576)
25.0% (8)
+21.9%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Paul shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
Paul
Zegras
Home
52.8% (2,445)
40.5% (908)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
37.3% (951)
By Period
Paul
Zegras
P1
53.8%
40.0%
P2
51.0%
38.6%
P3
52.2%
38.2%
OT
50.0%
31.6%
Final 5 min
51.3%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 19:58 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 15:33 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2 | 14:13 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 1 | 08:00 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 14:16 | Neutral | Nick Paul |