Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Sturm wins 67.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 59.0% vs Thomas 52.9% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 11-6 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 64.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 90.9%
Neutral zone
Sturm 77.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 74.5%
74.5%
25.5%
Sturm
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
6
(17 meetings)
11
6
Sturm
Thomas
Last 10: Sturm 5-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Sturm
Thomas
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
6
0
Sturm
Thomas
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Sturm
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
60.6% (708)
53.2% (1,166)
+7.4%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
56.9% (262)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (101)
48.4% (221)
+8.0%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Sturm shoots left. Thomas is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Home / Away
Sturm
Thomas
Home
61.6% (451)
51.6% (830)
Away
58.2% (376)
54.7% (819)
By Period
Sturm
Thomas
P1
55.9%
52.7%
P2
58.9%
55.6%
P3
64.6%
50.6%
OT
70.6%
61.5%
Final 5 min
59.5%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
60.1%
Thomas
36.0%▼
50.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | OT | 01:03 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:42 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 19:25 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 19:10 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 08:03 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 17:20 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 16:22 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 12:39 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 12:28 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 08:05 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 04:28 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 17:58 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 04:30 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 02:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 12:15 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 08:57 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |