Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 10 meetings). Sturm wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Thomas 51.6% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 19-11 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Thomas 57.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 89.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 73.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 64.8%
64.8%
35.2%
Sturm
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
11
(30 meetings)
19
11
Sturm
Thomas
Last 10: Sturm 5-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
6
8
Sturm
Thomas
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
10
0
Sturm
Thomas
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Sturm
Thomas
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
51.1% (5,387)
+6.0%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
55.8% (927)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
50.2% (697)
+0.8%
On even strength, Sturm has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Sturm shoots left. Thomas is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,967).
Home / Away
Sturm
Thomas
Home
57.1% (1,614)
50.9% (3,484)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
52.3% (3,527)
By Period
Sturm
Thomas
P1
56.5%
50.7%
P2
54.9%
53.0%
P3
57.4%
50.8%
OT
60.6%
59.2%
Final 5 min
56.9%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 16:55 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 6, 2024 | OT | 01:03 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:42 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 19:25 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 19:10 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 08:03 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 17:20 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 16:22 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 12:39 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 12:28 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 08:05 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 04:28 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 17:58 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 04:30 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 02:24 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 12:15 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 08:57 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 10:47 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 06:14 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |