Noah Cates vs Trevor Zegras

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Noah Cates holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Cates 45.5% vs Zegras 37.0% (+12.1%)
Offensive zone Zegras 69.1%
Defensive zone Cates 60.9%
Neutral zone Cates 54.5%
Result Trevor Zegras favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Cates Zegras
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded

Situation Matchup

Situation
Cates
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
33.0% (264)
+12.5%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
32.1% (56)
+10.0%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
50.0% (2)
-5.3%
On even strength, Cates has a +12.5% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Cates shoots left. Zegras is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Cates
Zegras
Home
46.2% (468)
35.3% (173)
Away
43.9% (449)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Cates
Zegras
P1
46.0%
33.0%
P2
47.5%
35.7%
P3
42.1%
29.7%
OT
18.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.8%
29.4%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%
45.5%
45.0%
Zegras
42.0%
28.0%
32.9%