Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Zegras 39.5% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 85.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 62.3%
Neutral zone
Zegras 67.1%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
Cates
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Cates
Zegras
Last 7: Cates 2-5 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Zegras
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
3
Cates
Zegras
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
39.0% (1,703)
+5.1%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
38.5% (148)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
25.0% (8)
+9.9%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Cates shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
Cates
Zegras
Home
43.9% (1,708)
40.5% (908)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
37.3% (951)
By Period
Cates
Zegras
P1
44.5%
40.0%
P2
43.7%
38.6%
P3
41.2%
38.2%
OT
29.4%
31.6%
Final 5 min
41.4%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 06:42 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 00:48 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 00:36 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 14:47 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |