Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kapanen on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kapanen wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kapanen 47.1% vs Aho 50.5% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 78.7%
Defensive zone
Aho 61.3%
Neutral zone
Aho 71.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Kapanen
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kapanen
Aho
Last 6: Kapanen 4-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
2
1
Kapanen
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
1
0
Kapanen
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kapanen
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kapanen
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (527)
50.5% (878)
-4.0%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
53.5% (144)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (38)
44.3% (61)
-4.8%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Kapanen is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Kapanen shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Home / Away
Kapanen
Aho
Home
47.0% (315)
53.8% (571)
Away
46.2% (292)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Kapanen
Aho
P1
41.6%
49.0%
P2
50.7%
51.7%
P3
47.6%
50.3%
OT
25.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
44.4%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kapanen
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.6%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:50 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 18:48 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 17:33 | Defensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 13:52 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:11 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:54 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |