Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.8% vs 53.9%). Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 54.4% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 56.8%
Defensive zone
Zacha 52.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 56.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Zacha
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Zacha
O'Reilly
Last 9: Zacha 3-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
3
1
Zacha
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Zacha
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Zacha
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (787)
55.0% (1,084)
-1.1%
Power Play
63.2% (193)
56.8% (303)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (88)
40.3% (149)
+4.0%
On power play, Zacha has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Zacha is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Zacha shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Zacha
O'Reilly
Home
56.7% (538)
54.8% (759)
Away
52.8% (530)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Zacha
O'Reilly
P1
52.6%
55.3%
P2
54.8%
51.9%
P3
56.8%
54.2%
OT
59.1%
64.7%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
54.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2024 | 3 | 03:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 14:19 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 07:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 02:48 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 16:54 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 19:01 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 13:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |