Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 49.2% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 18-16 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 59.9%
Defensive zone
Zacha 62.1%
Neutral zone
Zacha 62.2%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Zacha
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
18
(34 meetings)
16
18
Zacha
O'Reilly
Last 10: Zacha 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
7
3
Zacha
O'Reilly
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
11
Zacha
O'Reilly
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
5
4
Zacha
O'Reilly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (5,156)
56.2% (15,290)
-7.3%
Power Play
55.7% (813)
58.7% (3,457)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (557)
51.4% (2,826)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Zacha is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,965).
Zacha shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Zacha
O'Reilly
Home
49.7% (3,381)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
48.6% (3,145)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Zacha
O'Reilly
P1
49.9%
55.6%
P2
49.2%
57.0%
P3
48.2%
55.0%
OT
53.5%
62.2%
Final 5 min
47.3%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
49.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 18:41 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:04 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 3 | 03:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 14:19 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 07:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 02:48 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 16:54 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 19:01 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 13:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 19:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 11:27 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 3 | 00:53 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 2 | 12:46 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 1 | 04:42 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 3 | 17:10 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |