Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.8% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 67.5%
Defensive zone
Zacha 52.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 56.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Zacha
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Zacha
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
0
Zacha
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zacha
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (700)
55.7% (856)
-2.7%
Power Play
54.1% (109)
57.5% (233)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
39.2% (74)
50.0% (144)
-10.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Zacha shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Zacha
O'Reilly
Home
51.6% (438)
55.5% (616)
Away
52.4% (445)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Zacha
O'Reilly
P1
57.0%
58.1%
P2
48.9%
54.9%
P3
50.5%
53.9%
OT
42.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 18:41 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |