Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.8% vs Hertl 57.5% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 85.8%
Defensive zone
Zacha 65.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 63.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Zacha
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Zacha
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Zacha
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
0
Zacha
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (700)
58.7% (858)
-5.7%
Power Play
54.1% (109)
55.8% (285)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
39.2% (74)
62.9% (35)
-23.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Zacha shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Zacha
Hertl
Home
51.6% (438)
60.1% (599)
Away
52.4% (445)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Zacha
Hertl
P1
57.0%
52.4%
P2
48.9%
63.9%
P3
50.5%
58.5%
OT
42.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:06 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |