Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 49.2% vs Hertl 54.3% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 83.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 77.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 78.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 79.8%
20.2%
79.8%
Zacha
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
12
(28 meetings)
16
12
Zacha
Hertl
Last 10: Zacha 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
6
4
Zacha
Hertl
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
6
4
Zacha
Hertl
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Zacha
Hertl
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (5,156)
53.9% (8,303)
-5.0%
Power Play
55.7% (813)
59.2% (1,995)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (557)
46.3% (806)
-4.1%
On even strength, Hertl has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Zacha is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,965).
Zacha shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Zacha
Hertl
Home
49.7% (3,381)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
48.6% (3,145)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Zacha
Hertl
P1
49.9%
53.6%
P2
49.2%
54.2%
P3
48.2%
55.3%
OT
53.5%
46.9%
Final 5 min
47.3%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
49.2%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:06 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 12:11 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 09:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 10:58 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 17:07 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 03:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 09:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 06:33 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 14:45 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 12:31 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 10:05 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 10:02 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 19:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 10, 2018 | 1 | 00:27 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |