Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.8% vs Johnston 48.0% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 63.3%
Defensive zone
Zacha 51.5%
Neutral zone
Johnston 55.2%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Zacha
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Zacha
Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
2
Zacha
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (700)
47.3% (666)
+5.7%
Power Play
54.1% (109)
50.7% (69)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
39.2% (74)
51.4% (35)
-12.2%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Zacha is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Zacha shoots left. Johnston is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Zacha
Johnston
Home
51.6% (438)
47.5% (364)
Away
52.4% (445)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Zacha
Johnston
P1
57.0%
49.4%
P2
48.9%
46.9%
P3
50.5%
47.1%
OT
42.1%
47.1%
Final 5 min
48.0%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:49 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 11:23 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 06:12 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |