Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Greig wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 49.0% vs Carrick 52.2% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Greig 68.5%
Defensive zone
Greig 52.6%
Neutral zone
Greig 57.9%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Greig
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Greig
Carrick
Last 6: Greig 2-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
3
Greig
Carrick
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Greig
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (1,144)
52.2% (2,544)
-3.5%
Power Play
56.8% (74)
61.3% (75)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (178)
50.8% (435)
-3.6%
On power play, Carrick has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Greig is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Greig shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Home / Away
Greig
Carrick
Home
49.9% (688)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
48.0% (708)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Greig
Carrick
P1
46.0%
51.8%
P2
51.8%
52.3%
P3
49.1%
52.6%
OT
28.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
48.9%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:26 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:20 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 11:31 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2 | 03:02 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 03:07 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |