Scouting Report
Marco Rossi holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Rossi wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 47.1% vs Donato 45.4% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 60.3%
Defensive zone
Donato 53.0%
Neutral zone
Donato 56.0%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Rossi
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Rossi
Donato
Last 5: Rossi 1-4 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
3
Rossi
Donato
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Rossi
Donato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (879)
43.5% (400)
+3.0%
Power Play
48.6% (105)
48.7% (119)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
33.3% (6)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, Rossi has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Rossi is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
Rossi shoots left. Donato is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Rossi
Donato
Home
47.5% (520)
50.2% (279)
Away
46.0% (472)
38.2% (246)
By Period
Rossi
Donato
P1
47.8%
44.6%
P2
44.2%
46.6%
P3
48.7%
42.0%
OT
45.5%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
52.0%▲
49.5%
46.8%
Donato
60.0%▲
50.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 18:09 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 17:51 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 1 | 14:40 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 10, 2024 | 2 | 09:56 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |