Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Kuraly wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 51.0% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 88.4%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 80.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 56.1%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 80.0%
80.0%
20.0%
Kuraly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Kuraly
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
0
Kuraly
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (464)
57.1% (368)
-4.5%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
55.2% (96)
+44.8%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (155)
50.0% (10)
-3.5%
On power play, Kuraly has a +44.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kuraly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (235).
Kuraly shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Stamkos
Home
55.9% (322)
53.9% (230)
Away
46.0% (298)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Kuraly
Stamkos
P1
55.9%
56.7%
P2
46.7%
54.1%
P3
50.7%
59.2%
OT
0.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
50.6%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |