Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.4% vs 51.1%). Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings). Kuraly wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.4% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 21-13 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 79.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 88.0%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 61.4%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Kuraly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
21
(34 meetings)
13
21
Kuraly
Stamkos
Last 10: Kuraly 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
12
Kuraly
Stamkos
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
12
4
Kuraly
Stamkos
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
5
Kuraly
Stamkos
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (5,161)
50.5% (9,825)
+1.1%
Power Play
56.4% (101)
55.2% (1,729)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (1,091)
49.6% (827)
-5.2%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kuraly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (2,235).
Kuraly shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Stamkos
Home
52.1% (3,205)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
48.8% (3,149)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Kuraly
Stamkos
P1
51.2%
49.2%
P2
50.0%
52.7%
P3
50.2%
50.9%
OT
52.3%
54.3%
Final 5 min
49.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:17 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 07:13 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 12:30 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 18:26 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 13:10 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 06:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 18:45 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 12:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 13:44 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 1 | 18:20 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 3 | 00:36 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 1 | 18:34 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |