Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 51.2% vs Novak 45.6% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 75.4%
Defensive zone
Aho 64.0%
Neutral zone
Aho 62.6%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 71.6%
71.6%
28.4%
Aho
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Aho
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Aho
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (778)
43.8% (384)
+4.7%
Power Play
63.4% (191)
58.8% (17)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (65)
100.0% (1)
-49.2%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +49.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Aho shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Aho
Novak
Home
51.3% (530)
46.5% (202)
Away
51.4% (504)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Aho
Novak
P1
50.0%
49.2%
P2
51.3%
44.2%
P3
52.1%
40.0%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.4%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 05:46 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 15:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |