Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.5% vs Novak 42.5% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 51.0%
Defensive zone
Aho 54.1%
Neutral zone
Aho 51.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Aho
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Aho
Novak
Last 10: Aho 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
3
5
Aho
Novak
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
2
Aho
Novak
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
2
1
Aho
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (878)
40.4% (408)
+10.1%
Power Play
53.5% (144)
45.5% (33)
+8.0%
On even strength, Aho has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Aho shoots left. Novak is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Aho
Novak
Home
53.8% (571)
42.0% (212)
Away
46.9% (512)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Aho
Novak
P1
49.0%
41.9%
P2
51.7%
39.3%
P3
50.3%
42.1%
OT
58.8%
25.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 01:16 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 01:03 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 00:59 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 17:52 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 06:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:39 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 16:21 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:57 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 03:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:08 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 14:28 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 10:34 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |