Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Lorentz wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lorentz 47.6% vs Seguin 55.4% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 53.5%
Defensive zone
Seguin 71.0%
Neutral zone
Seguin 70.1%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Lorentz
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Lorentz
Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
0
Lorentz
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lorentz
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (101)
56.5% (712)
-10.0%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
59.7% (67)
-26.4%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
44.9% (49)
-7.4%
On power play, Seguin has a +26.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Lorentz is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (50).
Lorentz shoots left. Seguin is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (604).
Home / Away
Lorentz
Seguin
Home
49.1% (53)
58.5% (402)
Away
42.4% (59)
53.8% (426)
By Period
Lorentz
Seguin
P1
48.6%
58.4%
P2
36.7%
54.7%
P3
57.7%
54.1%
Final 5 min
41.9%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lorentz
58.0%▲
47.5%
45.5%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |