Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 53.7%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.3% vs Nosek 53.6% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 20-13 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 84.8%
Defensive zone
Nosek 54.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 63.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Hertl
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
13
(33 meetings)
20
13
Hertl
Nosek
Last 10: Hertl 7-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
3
Hertl
Nosek
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
7
Hertl
Nosek
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
3
Hertl
Nosek
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (8,303)
54.9% (2,710)
-1.0%
Power Play
59.2% (1,995)
45.8% (48)
+13.4%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (806)
47.2% (428)
-0.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Hertl shoots left. Nosek is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,959).
Home / Away
Hertl
Nosek
Home
55.8% (5,382)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
52.9% (5,722)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Hertl
Nosek
P1
53.6%
52.2%
P2
54.2%
54.1%
P3
55.3%
54.7%
OT
46.9%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | 3 | 07:17 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 1 | 16:44 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 1 | 03:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 15:08 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 1 | 12:07 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 2 | 18:31 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 17, 2021 | 2 | 08:09 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 3 | 14:29 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 2 | 16:08 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 1 | 18:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 1 | 13:08 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 03:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 3 | 09:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 2 | 14:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 2 | 12:41 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |