Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +22.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Zegras 37.0% (+22.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 89.5%
Defensive zone
Zegras 51.7%
Neutral zone
Zegras 75.9%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 76.6%
23.4%
76.6%
Staal
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Staal
Zegras
Last 8: Staal 2-6 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
4
Staal
Zegras
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
2
Staal
Zegras
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
33.0% (264)
+23.2%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
32.1% (56)
+33.9%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
50.0% (2)
-7.3%
On power play, Staal has a +33.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Staal shoots left. Zegras is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Staal
Zegras
Home
55.4% (699)
35.3% (173)
Away
54.4% (702)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Staal
Zegras
P1
55.7%
33.0%
P2
54.7%
35.7%
P3
53.4%
29.7%
OT
70.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.7%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 16:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 11:17 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 19:07 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:42 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:27 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:25 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:29 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |