Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McBain wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 45.9% vs Karlsson 55.6% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 86.4%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 57.0%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 62.9%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 74.6%
25.4%
74.6%
McBain
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
McBain
Karlsson
Last 5: McBain 3-2 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
McBain
Karlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (568)
56.3% (739)
-10.0%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
58.6% (181)
-21.1%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (74)
47.2% (53)
-9.4%
On power play, Karlsson has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. McBain is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (441).
McBain shoots left. Karlsson is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
McBain
Karlsson
Home
50.6% (330)
56.5% (462)
Away
39.7% (320)
56.0% (511)
By Period
McBain
Karlsson
P1
45.4%
57.1%
P2
44.5%
55.2%
P3
45.7%
56.7%
Final 5 min
48.0%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
52.0%▲
49.5%
45.2%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 15:20 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 14:46 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 03:32 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 18:15 | Offensive | William Karlsson |