Alexander Kerfoot vs Brock Nelson
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.8% vs 50.9%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 50.4% vs Nelson 50.8% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Kerfoot
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Kerfoot
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
1
0
Kerfoot
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
1
0
Kerfoot
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (115)
50.9% (928)
+3.0%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
59.8% (179)
+40.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (16)
43.4% (205)
-18.4%
On power play, Kerfoot has a +40.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Kerfoot is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (74).
Kerfoot shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
Nelson
Home
41.7% (60)
52.9% (654)
Away
58.3% (72)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Kerfoot
Nelson
P1
53.8%
48.4%
P2
50.0%
54.3%
P3
47.8%
50.5%
Final 5 min
56.5%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
54.0%▬
53.0%
50.8%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 16:39 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:20 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |