Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs Cates 45.1% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 85.6%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 65.8%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 73.9%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 75.1%
75.1%
24.9%
Cirelli
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Cirelli
Cates
Last 6: Cirelli 4-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Cirelli
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
46.7% (912)
+3.2%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
33.9% (56)
+21.0%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
35.0% (137)
+13.7%
On power play, Cirelli has a +21.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (830).
Cirelli shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Cates
Home
46.7% (649)
46.1% (521)
Away
53.5% (643)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Cirelli
Cates
P1
50.1%
48.0%
P2
51.1%
42.3%
P3
48.5%
44.3%
OT
64.3%
31.3%
Final 5 min
49.7%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
56.0%▲
45.0%
50.1%
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 01:01 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 14:29 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 01:53 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 01:29 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 11:30 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:24 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |