Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Cates 43.0% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Cirelli 84.1%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 76.4%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 73.6%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 78.2%
78.2%
21.8%
Cirelli
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
Cirelli
Cates
Last 10: Cirelli 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
2
Cirelli
Cates
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
1
Cirelli
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
2
Cirelli
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (5,539)
43.8% (2,596)
+5.9%
Power Play
56.7% (561)
43.8% (224)
+12.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (1,157)
35.2% (364)
+8.6%
On power play, Cirelli has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,447).
Cirelli shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,180).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Cates
Home
49.6% (3,684)
43.5% (1,590)
Away
49.0% (3,573)
42.1% (1,594)
By Period
Cirelli
Cates
P1
49.7%
44.5%
P2
48.7%
43.2%
P3
49.3%
40.9%
OT
51.6%
30.3%
Final 5 min
50.9%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
56.0%▲
45.0%
49.3%
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 04:13 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 06:42 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 07:00 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 06:32 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 01:01 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 14:29 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 01:53 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 01:29 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 11:30 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:24 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 06:42 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 18:57 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 10:58 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |