Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.4% vs Cates 45.2% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 64.0%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 51.1%
Neutral zone
Cates 51.8%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Cirelli
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Cirelli
Cates
Last 5: Cirelli 2-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Cirelli
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (468)
44.2% (566)
+5.4%
Power Play
69.9% (73)
44.0% (84)
+25.9%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (169)
50.0% (38)
-15.1%
On power play, Cirelli has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Cirelli is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (450).
Cirelli shoots left. Cates is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (437).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Cates
Home
54.7% (316)
45.1% (350)
Away
42.9% (394)
43.8% (338)
By Period
Cirelli
Cates
P1
49.4%
46.8%
P2
48.9%
46.5%
P3
46.9%
40.8%
OT
33.3%
20.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
56.0%▲
45.0%
48.2%
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 04:13 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 06:42 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 07:00 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 06:32 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |